10 reasons why Justin Trudeau’s Liberals will win on October 19
Here are the top 10 reasons why on October 19, 2015 Justin Trudeau will become the 23rd Prime Minister of Canada.
- A lot of us are changing our minds.
If these figures remain true on October 19, Liberals will successfully pick up support from those who did not vote for them in the last election.
One in four NDP voters in 2011, one in four GREEN voters in 2011 and 12% of CONSERVATIVE voters in 2011 say they will be marking an X next to a LIBERAL candidate in this election.
2. People are listening, reading and following along.
If you’re following the campaign closely, you’re more likely to be voting Liberal this time around.
Whether it’s online, in cafes, newspapers or on TV, Canadians who are totally or very engaged in this election (62% of us) are more often than not, liking what Trudeau and the LIBERALS have to say.
3. The NDP are all over the place, except on issues that matter.
The NDP have completely lost the “narrative war.”
At the beginning of this campaign, the NDP were believed to be in the best position to replace PM Harper and the CONSERVATIVES. Now, it looks like the party is headed for a 3rd place finish because they were unable to control the message of their campaign.
The top 5 topics associated with the NDP campaign are: Opposition to TPP (popular only among their base), support for niqab (a disaster to their Quebec base), NDP ads (the only positive in this campaign), losing Quebec support/polls and negative comments toward Mulcair (both horrible for perception).
LIBERALS have benefited from these strategic campaigning errors. See reason #4.
4. Issues matter to progressives.
Liberals have been successful in talking about the issues that matter to them, and to most progressive voters.
In contrast to the NDP, here are the topics associated with the LIBERAL campaign: Trudeau ads (mostly positive), TPP reaction/plans to review (a popular and modest position), final platform/election promises (always a desire for every campaign), deficit spending/budget (arguably the biggest Liberal campaign idea) and help for the middle class (an issue NDP should be dominating).
5. Welcome to Liberal Toronto, once again.
It looks like Toronto’s 3-way races will result in a Liberal fortress.
Canada’s largest city and the largest electoral region in the country may be seeing LIBERAL red all around. This is a massive hit to the NDP, who desparately need to break into Toronto in order for them to form government.
6. Calgary and Edmonton going red.
If these numbers continue to hold, Alberta’s two largest cities may be saying goodbye to several long-time CONSERVATIVE MP’s and welcoming new LIBERAL representatives.
7. Liberals are in it. Everywhere.
While Ontario and Quebec are crucial to forming government, it looks like the LIBERALS are the only party capable of picking up buckets of seats in every single region of the country: 1st in Atlantic Canada, 2nd in Quebec, 1st in Ontario, 2nd in the Prairies, 2nd in Alberta, and 3rd in BC (2 points from first place).
8. It’s not just the older voters.
It’s often the case that older Canadians tend to vote CONSERVATIVE, younger voters prefer the NDP and somewhere in the middle are the LIBERAL voters. This time, it looks like the LIBERALS may have support from five of the six age groups, which would be a game-changer in this election.
9. Support from the unexpected parts.
If these numbers hold, the LIBERALS will be the only party to grow their vote from 2011 in every single region of Alberta and the Prairies.
10. Apparently, he’s ready.
Despite weeks of the CONSERVATIVES hammering home the message that Justin “just isn’t ready” to lead our country, the numbers suggest Canadians think otherwise.
Across Canada, Justin Trudeau leads or sits in 2nd place in the Best Prime Minister category. No other leader can make that claim.
Research, charts and polls all courtesy of: Innovative Research Group
