The Final Hours and 5 Predictions for Election Night in Canada

During my time in politics, I learned that aside from polls, there is one other pretty reliable indication of how political parties are doing during elections: the location of their final campaign rallies.

So, let me take you on a little journey into my mind. Here’s where Canada’s top three party leaders spent the last 24–48 hours of their campaigns and what I think it all means as Canadians head to the polls.

Trudeau’s Liberals: Calgary/Edmonton

Clearly there is confidence in the Liberal ranks. A party on the brink of a huge election win, Trudeau finished his campaign in the heart of Conservative country, and in Prime Minister Harper’s hometown.

No need to save seats, no need to jostle the NDP in more traditional left-leaning ridings. This is all about stealing votes from disgruntled soft Conservative voters who are leaning Liberal this time around. Bank on the Liberals finally making it onto Alberta’s electoral map, winning between 4–6 seats on election night.

Harper’s Conservatives: Etobicoke

If anyone was looking for one sure sign that the Conservatives are in trouble, this is it.

If there is one part of Canada (outside of Alberta) where Conservatives feel at home, it’s in the heartland of the Ford Nation — that solid base of Toronto Conservatives who have supported Rob and Doug no matter what. Well, this weekend Prime Minister Harper thanked 150 of them as his campaign drew to a close.

Nothing says “re-elect a strong stable government” like spending your last few hours preaching to the already converted.

Mulcair’s NDP: Montreal

The NDP started this campaign on top of the polls, and positioned themselves as the only credible option to replace the Conservatives. If this were still true, the NDP would be spending their last few hours in Toronto where dozens of ‘progressive’ seats would be up for grabs, but they’re not.

Instead, on the last day of the campaign, they found themselves protecting their large base in Quebec, and perhaps even their own leader’s seat.

My 5 predictions:

1. Prime Minister Stephen Harper will win his Calgary seat but will resign as party leader. (Cue the awkward, ultra-partisan, surprise Jason Kenney speech.)
2. NDP Leader Tom Mulcair will lose his Outremont seat; resignation pending.
3. Ford Nation no more — Conservatives will lose all three Etobicoke seats. (Mark this as the point in the night where Conservatives turn to each and say “oh shit.”)
4. The NDP (Toronto Danforth) and Conservatives (Thornhill) will only win one seat each in Toronto. (Cue the Liberal minority government declaration on CTV — CBC will wait another 10 minutes.)
5. The Liberal Party will flirt with majority territory all night, but will end up short; Expect a 150–165 seat minority government. (All eyes on BC to tell us how this election story ends.)

Photo credit: @AndyBlatchford